Euro 2008 qual. - England's chances? One in 4.273

Missing Post Count · Post by **Missing Post Count** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 12:42 am

Eurosport - Fri, 16 Nov 12:37:00 2007
Bad news for plastic pint 'glass' manufacturers in Austria and Switzerland - England have just a 23 percent probability of qualifying for Euro 2008.

Divine intervention required
According to the statistics, Steve McClaren's side have less than a one in four chance of making it to next summer's jamboree going into the final weekend of qualifying action.

England's only realistic hope is that Russia slip up against either Israel or, less likely, Andorra. Then Steve McClaren's side would qualify with a win against Croatia. There is a 22% chance of this coming to pass.

A real long shot is for Croatia to implode. They would be out if they lost to Macedonia, and were then thumped at Wembley. To secure an equal or better head-to-head, England would have to win either 2-0, or by three or more goals. But there is more chance of Lord Lucan scoring the winner on Wednesday than of this happening, with less than a two percent likelihood.

But that sad reality is that, having dropped points against four teams in the group, England's stumbling campaign looks set to end in failure.

THE MATHS PART - Probability of each outcome

ENGLAND QUALIFY

- Russia fail to beat both Israel and Andorra (38%), England beat Croatia (57%) - 21.7%

- Russia beat Israel and Andorra (62%); Croatia lose to Macedonia (12%), then lose to England either 2-0 or by three or more goals (22%) - 1.7%

Total chance - 23.4%

ENGLAND FAIL TO QUALIFY

- Russia beat Israel and Andorra (62%), Croatia get a point against Macedonia (88%) - 54.6%

- Russia beat Israel and Andorra (62%), Croatia lose to Macedonia but do enough against England (9%) - 5.7%

- Russia fail to beat Israel and Andorra (38%), England fail to beat Croatia (43%) - 16.3%

Total chance - 76.6%

Click the link below the photo for what each of the home nations must to do go through!

(Probabilities based on betting exchange prices)

Missing Post Count · Post by **Missing Post Count** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 12:44 am

Israel v Russia

There was a full pre match round up on this qualifier on Russia Tv a few minutes ago. Quite an indepth report.

joker · Post by **joker** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:38 am

i think odds have changed now

delfino_1936 · Post by **delfino_1936** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 12:40 pm

joker wrote:i think odds have changed now

imagine if Russia won, England could've knocked out Croatia

mattieg1200 · Post by **mattieg1200** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 12:41 pm

lol.. imagine if croatia beat england lol..

Piola · Post by **Piola** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 12:43 pm

Rigoni 10 wrote:
joker wrote:i think odds have changed now
imagine if Russia won, England could've knocked out Croatia

that wouldve been a massive fucup but have you seen pics of the pitch in skopje?? honestly, it was shocking and almost unplayable, no wonder Croatia lost.

Hawkesy · Post by **Hawkesy** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:02 pm

What are those odds now?

We can beat croatia, as long as our superstars appreciate they have a second chance and pull their fingers out of their backsides.

pires7 · Post by **pires7** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:37 pm

will top the group with a win and qualify with a draw unless Russia beat andorra by 9 goals

ronaldo07 · Post by **ronaldo07** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:27 am

pires7 wrote:will top the group with a win and qualify with a draw unless Russia beat andorra by 9 goals

nope ..
will qualify with a draw regardless how many goals russia beat andorra ..
head2head record is what count

# 9 · Post by **# 9** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:30 am

well russia lose, now england are gonna thump the croats to qualify

ozzie owl · Post by **ozzie owl** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 10:25 am

How lucky can McLose be, Israel beat Russia.

Now England need only a drawer against Croatia, well McLoser will get them to through.

Mind you knowing him, I am sure he is capable of stuffing it up.

El Pibe D'Oro · Post by **El Pibe D'Oro** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 3:15 pm

ronaldo07 wrote:
pires7 wrote:will top the group with a win and qualify with a draw unless Russia beat andorra by 9 goals
nope ..
will qualify with a draw regardless how many goals russia beat andorra ..
head2head record is what count

DIdnt they beat each other once each needle dik?

the REAL one · Post by **the REAL one** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 3:18 pm

Scudetto8687 wrote:
ronaldo07 wrote:
pires7 wrote:will top the group with a win and qualify with a draw unless Russia beat andorra by 9 goals
nope ..
will qualify with a draw regardless how many goals russia beat andorra ..
head2head record is what count
DIdnt they beat each other once each needle dik?

i think they take into a/c the goals as well...

3-0 / 1-2

ronaldo07 · Post by **ronaldo07** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 4:38 pm

Scudetto8687 wrote:
ronaldo07 wrote:
pires7 wrote:will top the group with a win and qualify with a draw unless Russia beat andorra by 9 goals
nope ..
will qualify with a draw regardless how many goals russia beat andorra ..
head2head record is what count
DIdnt they beat each other once each needle dik?

England beat them with 3-0 in home , and lose 1-2 away ..
so they have better head2head results

I'm not that confident now though .. England has been really struggle lately ... they looks like uninspiring at all the whole match against russia couple weeks ago exept fo rooney .. with rooney out now, i still doubt they will beat crotia easily ... I'll be happy with a draw

Judge Judy · Post by **Judge Judy** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 4:57 pm

farken go cro-at-zi-a

ronaldo07 · Post by **ronaldo07** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:05 pm

abix wrote:farken go cro-at-zi-a

NO WAY

Hawkesy · Post by **Hawkesy** » Wed Nov 21, 2007 12:02 am

ozzie owl wrote:How lucky can McLose be, Israel beat Russia.

Don't agree with that comment. Israel have only lost once in 8 years at home. (not an exact stat - in case anyone wants to correct me) Well they certainly don't lose very often at home anyway.

It was never a foregone conclusion that russia would win over there.

Missing Post Count · Post by **Missing Post Count** » Wed Nov 21, 2007 1:10 am

Laziale wrote:have you seen pics of the pitch in skopje?? honestly, it was shocking and almost unplayable, no wonder Croatia lost.

It was a shocking pitch, especially for an international qualifier. Having said that Macedonia played on the same pitch. I think Croatia finding out the result was academic at half time had more impact on the second half of that game than the pitch in Skjope.

Crazy-North · Post by **Crazy-North** » Thu Nov 22, 2007 7:33 am

Hawkesy wrote:
ozzie owl wrote:How lucky can McLose be, Israel beat Russia.
Don't agree with that comment. Israel have only lost once in 8 years at home. (not an exact stat - in case anyone wants to correct me) Well they certainly don't lose very often at home anyway.

It was never a foregone conclusion that russia would win over there.

nor is it a forgone conclusion that england will even get a draw against croatia... half time 2-0

ComeOnYouBlues · Post by **ComeOnYouBlues** » Thu Nov 22, 2007 7:48 am

2-1 Fat Frank penalty, COME ON ENGLAND

Editing my comment 2-2 SIR David Beckham sets up Crouch

Jono82 · Post by **Jono82** » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:00 am

you arsey bastards might just sneak this!

DON HALA MADRID · Post by **DON HALA MADRID** » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:01 am

2-2 England

Crouch with the volley from the one and only, Becks

Le King · Post by **Le King** » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:04 am

thats y becks should b in that team, simply for his crossing and dead situations

love him!!!

c'mon england!!!

ComeOnYouBlues · Post by **ComeOnYouBlues** » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:07 am

FFS FUCKING CROATS

ComeOnYouBlues · Post by **ComeOnYouBlues** » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:13 am

Beckham V Greece again please

pires7 · Post by **pires7** » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:25 am

It's all over, Russia 1-0 winners

Azz · Post by **Azz** » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:26 am

unlucky england should have had an inform keeper in goals for that first goal imo this is what happens to a league overrun by foreign imports

Željko Jurin · Post by **Željko Jurin** » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:27 am

BYE, BYE ENGLAND !!!!!!!!!!!!

PS....soft penalty too

pires7 · Post by **pires7** » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:29 am

Petric with an absolute cracker!!!

Probably could have been 5-2 with all the chances Croatia made

BILLIC is a legend!

Željko Jurin · Post by **Željko Jurin** » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:33 am

pires7 wrote:Petric with an absolute cracker!!!

Probably could have been 5-2 with all the chances Croatia made

BILLIC is a legend!

B I L I C......europeans dont have double letters

Time to get rid of your signature picture. Croatia must be one of the favourites for Euro 08 now !!!!!

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Euro 2008 qual. - England's chances? One in 4.273

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